Victor Wembanyama and Kevin Durant

Now that the 2024 NBA draft is in the rearview mirror and the NBA Summer League for those players drafted is in full swing, I started thinking about just how much of an impact these draft picks will have on their new team and/or the league. (I haven’t been too encouraged by watching a few games in the summer league.) I think you will be surprised, as I was, at what I discovered in my research of the NBA draft. I went back in the draft to 1989. (32 years) I chose 1989 because that’s when the draft was reduced to two rounds. I stopped with the 2020 draft because it takes several years for the draft picks to begin making All-Star Teams, All-NBA Teams, etc. After all the hoopla and the made for TV production of the draft is over how many of these draft picks make their mark in the NBA? There have been several years when the #2, #3, #4 or even higher pick in the draft went on to have a better NBA career than the #1 pick. As you will see from my findings there have been some #1 picks that may have been great in college, and “can’t miss” in the NBA, but they did. That is not an indictment on the players’ ability as much as it is a reflection on how great the players are in the NBA. I played D1 basketball against and with some very talented basketball players, but the next level is much faster, bigger, and better. All of these draftees are special basketball players. It takes an exceptional amount of skill, physicality, and commitment to even be drafted. 

In my research I found that after the fifth pick in the FIRST round the chances of a player making an All-Star team drop 50% or more. The chances of being an All-NBA selection drops 70%. Since 1989 there have been 22 out of 32 #1 draft picks make an All-Star team and 18 #1 picks made All-NBA.  In the same 32 years, there were 13 #2 picks who made an All-Star team, and 9 #2 picks made All-NBA. There was an anomaly with the #3 picks in that 19 players have made All-Star teams, and 14 have been selected to the All-NBA team. (Surpassing #2 picks by 6 in All-Star selections and 5 All-NBA picks.) The #4 picks in the draft over these 32 years have made 12 All-Star teams and 7 All-NBA’s. The #5 picks have made 12 All-Star teams and 9 All-NBA teams.  

Here is where the statistics began to tell the truth about the draft. After the #5 pick ONLY 6 players that were drafted #6 went on to make an All-Star team, AND only 2 players made All-NBA. (That’s out of 30 players.) The chances of getting a difference maker after the 5th pick is almost impossible. There are a few exceptions like Kobe Bryant, who was a #13 pick in 1996. He was coming out of high school as an 18year-old, definitely some unknowns with him.  Dirk Nowitzki in 1998 was a #9 pick, and for many in the NBA he was a gamble. He was only 19 years-old, skinny, he was not an inside player, and had been playing in Europe. In 2011 Jimmy Butler was taken by the Bulls with the #30 pick. Giannis was picked #15 by the Bucks because he was only 19 years-old and was playing in Greece. These are a few of the exceptions. The #9 pick has done much better than expected with 10 players making an All-Star team and 8 All-NBA. In the last 32 years there have only been TWO players that were drafted #30 that made an All-Star team or an All-NBA team. The chances of a second-round draft pick having any impact on the league is 3.13%. No player that was picked #32, #34, #36-40, #42, #49-60, in this 32 year period, have ever made an All-NBA team.(except for 1 player picked #57 and 1 player chosen #60)  So, how important is the NBA Draft? Besides making good “must see” TV, making the league a lot of money, great exposure and hype for the draftee’s, firing up the fan base, and helping the team find a ROLE player, the draft is “long” on publicity and “short”, really short, on production.  

The players that I have in my book, “The G.O.A.T.: The Quest to Find the Best”, are generational players, they represent the “elite” draft picks. They are the players that the coaches and general managers hope and dream of getting each draft. They are the Shaq’s, Iverson’s, Duncan’s, James’s, Howard’s, Davis’s, Irving’s, and the Wemby’s that are the most recent #1 picks. They all proved to be worthy.  They are rare.

In this day of analytics in sports, and with 32 years of historical research, this is the truth about the draft: #1 Picks 56.25% make All-NBA, #2 Picks 28.13% make All-NBA, #3 Picks 43.75% make All-NBA, #4 Picks 21.88% make All-NBA, and #5 Picks 28.13% make All-NBA. (#6-#8 picks the percentage drops to 6.25%) Picks #31 thru #60 have a 3.13% chance of making an All-NBA Team. I am NOT saying that if a player does not make All-NBA he is a bad draft pick. I am saying, they are going to play a role on their team, not make an impact on the league. Good luck Risacher, Sarr, Sheppard, Castle, and Holland the odds are not with you, but in sports, “you just never know”.