The Truth About the NBA Draft

Now that the NBA Playoffs have ended, all the talk turns to the NBA draft. I started thinking about just how much of an impact these first-round draft picks will have on their new team and/or the league. I think you will be surprised, as I was, at what I discovered in my research of the NBA draft. I went back to the draft in 1989 (37 years). I chose 1989 because that's when the draft was reduced to two rounds. I stopped with the 2020 draft because it takes several years for the draft picks to begin making All-Star Teams, All-NBA Teams, etc. Unless your name is Victor Wembanyama. After all the hoopla and the made for TV production of the draft is over how many of these "game changers" make their mark in the NBA?

There have been several years when the #2, #3, or even the #4 pick in the draft went on to have a better NBA career than the #1 pick. As you will see from my findings, there have been some #1 picks that may have been great in college, and "can't miss" in the NBA, but they did. That is not an indictment on the players' ability as much as it is a reflection on how great the players are in the NBA. I played D1 basketball against and with some very talented basketball players, but the next level requires an exceptional amount of skill, physicality, and commitment to even be drafted.

In my research I found that after the fifth pick in the FIRST round the chances of a player making an All-Star team drop 50% or more. The chances of being an All-NBA selection drop by 70%. Since 1989 there have been 24 out of 32 #1 draft picks to make an All-Star team and 18 #1 picks made All-NBA. In the same 37 years, there were 13 #2 picks to make an All-Star team, and 9 #2 picks make All-NBA. There was an anomaly with the #3 picks in that 19 players have made All-Star teams, and 14 have been selected for the All-NBA team. (Surpassing #2 picks by 6 in All-Star selections and 5 in All-NBA picks.) The #4 picks in the draft over these 32 years have made 12 All-Star teams and 7 All-NBA's. The #5 picks have made 12 All-Star teams and 9 All-NBA teams.

Here is where the statistics began to tell the truth about the draft. After the #5 pick ONLY 6 players that were drafted #6 went on to make an All-Star team, AND only 2 players made All-NBA. (That's out of 34 players.) The chance of getting a difference maker after the 5th pick is almost impossible. There are a few exceptions like Kobe Bryant, who was a #13 pick in 1996, but was coming out of high school as an 18-year-old. Dirk Nowitzki in 1998 was a #9 pick, and for many in the NBA a gamble, because he was only 19 years-old, skinny, and had been playing in Europe. In 2011, Jimmy Butler was taken by the Bulls with the #30 pick. Giannis was picked #15 by the Bucks because he was only 19 years-old and was playing in Greece. There are always exceptions. The #9 pick has done much better than expected with 10 players making an All-Star team and 8 All-NBA. In the last 32 years there have only been 2 players that were drafted #30 and made an All-Star team or an All-NBA team. The chance of a second-round draft pick having any impact on the league is less than 1 in 32. For example, in round #32, #34, #36-40, #42, #49-60 (except for 1 player in round 57 and 60) there has never been a draftee to make All-NBA. So, how important is the NBA Draft or any professional draft, for that matter? Besides making good "must see" TV, making the league a lot of money, great exposure and hype for the draftee, firing up the team base, and helping the team find a ROLE player, the draft is "long" on publicity and "short", really short, on production.

The players that I have in my book, "The G.O.A.T.: The Quest to Find the Best", are generational players; they represent the "elite" draft picks. They are the players that the coaches and general managers hope to get each draft, but more often than not, don't. They are rare.

In 1989, the #1 pick was Pervis Ellison, #2 Danny Ferry. In 1990, Derrick Coleman was #1 and Gary Payton #2. (#43 in my book of the greatest of all time and still playing.) In 1992, the #1 pick was a true "franchise" maker, Shaquille O'Neal. (15 All-Star selections and 14 All-NBA teams, and #6 in my book.) In 1995 Joe Smith was #1 and Antonio McDyess #2. In 1997, Tim Duncan was #1, 15 All-Stars, and 15 All-NBA selections. (#9 in my book) In 2000 the #1 pick was Kenyon Martin and #2 was Stromile Swift. The 2003 draft was a "jack pot" draft with #3 Carmelo Anthony, #4 Chris Bosh, #5 Dwyane Wade, and #1 LeBron James. All are in the Top 75 greatest of all time, and the #1 pick is still playing and considered the GOAT by many NBA followers. In 2006 Andrea Bargnani was #1 pick. The #1 pick in 2016 was Ben Simmons. In 2017, only one player drafted in the first 5 picks, Jason Tatum at #3, has made multiple All-Star and All-NBA teams. This is just a "snapshot" of the draft through these last 37 years. But I think it paints a good picture of how the NBA draft is a hit-and-miss exercise, and very often a miss. It paints a picture of the truth about the draft.